A study that generally is quite gloomy about national home values in the next two years predicts a small price increase for the Wilmington area.
Home values are expected to climb 2.6 percent in the Wilmington area over the next year and then 1.9 percent from 2012 to 2013, according to a study by Fiserv, a publicly traded financial analysis company.
Local real estate and economic experts, however, say home prices have fallen by up to a third here since the housing bubble burst. So there is a long way to go to recover from what most say were unrealistic prices in the middle of the last decade.
Additionally, real estate brokers here said a price increase would depend on price point and location.
The Fiserv study predicted what it called a triple dip in national home prices.
The first, it said, was in 2009 as national values plummeted after the housing bubble burst. Then last winter was a second dip, following the first-time home buyer tax credit.
Then came the scandal over how mortgage servicers were negligently processing foreclosures. Now that the scandal has mostly blown over, banks will be speeding up foreclosures, and that will result in the third dip.
But Intracoastal Realty broker Ashley Garner said there has been only one dip.
The market "has been dipping since 2007. The only times the dip has been interrupted were times that there were artificial, outside influences on the free market."
Garner cited the first-time home buyer tax credit.
"It just pulled buyers forward and had them buy houses sooner than they would have normally," he said. "This probably made things worse after the tax credit was over."
The foreclosure-processing, or robo-signing, scandal "simply prolonged the inevitable," Garner said. "The inventory, distressed and not-distressed, must be sold. The only way to clear the inventory is to have the prices come down."
But Garner and others were more optimistic about certain segments of the Wilmington-area market.
He said high-end home prices may have bottomed out.
Homes priced above $1.5 million "have hit bottom and are on the rise," Garner said. He cited statistics that show that the average price-per-square-foot of homes priced above $1.5 million is $437.54, which is below that of 2002-03.
Tom Spencer, general manager of Coldwell Banker Sea Coast Realty, was of a similar mind.
"We're seeing more activity in the upper end of the market," he said, "as people come back to $1 million-plus housing."
In general, the area is seeing some stabilization in prices, and we will see some increases," Spencer said.
Houses priced at $300,000 and under remain the strongest market, he said. By geography, "we've continued to find the Jacksonville market very solid. Hampstead is doing extremely well. Our main location is doing well, too."
Buddy Blake, owner of Re/Max Essential in Wilmington, said he didn't disagree with the Fiserv figures on the local market "from a 30,000-foot view."
But, "you have to look at it by sectors. Stuff under $400,000, we feel like it has stabilized," Blake said.
For instance, there is no oversupply in new-construction housing in New Hanover County.
Blake said there were three reasons for that.
"There isn't much land left. There is no development or financing." And, "there's been no new development started, so we are running through the finished lots."
New homes are about 20 percent of Re/Max Essential's inventory. "We've seen a little bit of (new construction) price increase in some neighborhoods.
"We haven't seen the foreclosures quite as rampant," Blake continued. "We keep hearing about a new wave, but we haven't seen that yet, especially in New Hanover County."
In Brunswick County, prices have stabilized in the single-family market, said Pete Frandano, president of the Brunswick County Association of Realtors.
"Existing inventory is coming down dramatically. What's going to happen to price? I don't think it's going to fall any further. It's stabilized and may tick up."
But it will be a long time before the new-home market comes back in Brunswick, he said, thanks to the plethora of so-called zombie developments with few homes built and no amenities in place.
St. James Plantation and Brunswick Forest are exceptions, however. Amenities are complete and "the developers have stood behind their community and done what they said they were going to do."
Carolina Beach saw a huge run-up in prices during the housing boom and has since seen a precipitous fall.
Justin Donaton, owner of Coastwalk Real Estate, said "it seems prices of single-family homes have hit bottom."
Sales have inched up over the past year to 252 from 249 in 2010, he said, citing statistics from the Wilmington Regional Association of Realtors ' multiple listing service.
"More significant is that the average (selling) price per square foot is $166, compared to $159 in 2010," Donaton said. "Of course this pales in comparison to the over-inflated prices of the boom, when homes were selling on average for $273 (per square foot)."
Donaton was optimistic. "Many buyers are from out of state, and they recognize the value Wilmington presents. Our company sales are up 89.5 percent compared to 2010, so something good is happening down here."
Brunswick's Frandano also said he hopes the region is ready for some sustained positive news on the real estate front.
"The journey of a 1,000 miles begins with one step," said Frandano. "I think we've taken that step."
Wayne Faulkner: 343-2329
On Twitter: @bizniznews
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